Persebaya Surabayavs
Garudayaksa
COMPLETEDIndonesia · Liga 1 · 9/19/2026, 8:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Persebaya Surabaya · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Persebaya Surabaya 1-1 Garudayaksa
Original prediction
Persebaya Surabaya
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.36 | 66.1% | 50.6% | -15.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.22 | 21.4% | 25.9% | 4.5 pts |
| Away | 7.21 | 12.5% | 23.5% | 11.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.22 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Persebaya Surabaya
Probability
50.6%
Model confidence
50.6%
Persebaya Surabaya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20