Pergolettesevs
Union Brescia
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone A · 8/30/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Union Brescia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Pergolettese 0-0 Union Brescia, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Pergolettese 0-1 Union Brescia
Original prediction
Union Brescia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.75 | 13.4% | 18.1% | 4.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 24.0% | 28.4% | 4.3 pts |
| Away | 1.45 | 62.5% | 53.6% | -8.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.45 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.0 pts
Projected Score
Pergolettese 0–0 Union Brescia
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Union Brescia
Probability
53.6%
Model confidence
53.6%
Union Brescia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80