Pergolettesevs
Trento
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone A · 9/26/2026, 12:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Trento · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Pergolettese 0-0 Trento
Original prediction
Trento
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.14 | 21.9% | 32.0% | 10.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.19 | 28.3% | 30.0% | 1.7 pts |
| Away | 1.82 | 49.8% | 38.0% | -11.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.19 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Trento
Probability
38.0%
Model confidence
38.0%
Trento has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 1 · avg 0.20/0.20
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60