Pergolettesevs
Lumezzane
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone A · 10/25/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Pergolettese 0-0 Lumezzane, with an exact score probability of 24%.
Prediction record
Final result
Pergolettese 2-1 Lumezzane
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 October 2026 at 12:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.43 | 37.3% | 37.5% | 0.3 pts |
| Draw | 2.97 | 30.5% | 32.4% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 2.82 | 32.2% | 30.0% | -2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.9 pts
Projected Score
Pergolettese 0–0 Lumezzane
Exact score probability: 24%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
32.4%
Model confidence
37.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PergoletteseWWDDD
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
LumezzaneLDWLL
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
PergoletteseLumezzane
29.6Attack40.7
77.8Defence55.6
51.9Form44.4
56.3Power49.9
0.90xG0.58