Pergolettesevs
Folgore Caratese
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone A · 9/17/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pergolettese · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Pergolettese 0-0 Folgore Caratese
Original prediction
Pergolettese
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.63 | 34.3% | 37.1% | 2.8 pts |
| Draw | 2.93 | 30.8% | 29.2% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 2.58 | 34.9% | 33.7% | -1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.93 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Pergolettese
Probability
37.1%
Model confidence
37.1%
Pergolettese has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 4 · avg 0.40/0.80
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80