Pergolettesevs
Athletic Carpi
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone A · 10/10/2026, 12:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pergolettese · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Pergolettese 1-0 Athletic Carpi, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Pergolettese 2-1 Athletic Carpi
Original prediction
Pergolettese
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 17:56 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.14 | 42.4% | 46.2% | 3.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.01 | 30.1% | 29.4% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 3.29 | 27.6% | 24.4% | -3.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.14 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.8 pts
Projected Score
Pergolettese 1–0 Athletic Carpi
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Pergolettese
Probability
46.2%
Model confidence
46.2%
Pergolettese has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 2 · avg 0.60/0.40
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20