Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
PEPO · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
PEPO are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (DLWLL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Reipas are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (LWWWD), averaging 2.60 scored and 1.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and PEPO hold a 4.4-point power-rating edge (38.2 v 33.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 11.4% in the Friendlies Clubs, while PEPO holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 65% BTTS chance and 62% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
PEPO
Probability
44.3%
Model confidence
11.4%
PEPO has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
GF 13 · GA 8 · avg 2.60/1.60