Penybontvs
Colwyn Bay
COMPLETEDWales · Premier League · 9/5/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Penybont · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-0 (11%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Penybont 1-0 Colwyn Bay
Original prediction
Penybont
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:14 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.07 | 43.7% | 51.2% | 7.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.06 | 29.7% | 25.7% | -4.0 pts |
| Away | 3.41 | 26.6% | 23.1% | -3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.07 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–011%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Penybont
Probability
51.2%
Model confidence
51.2%
Penybont has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00