Penybontvs
Barry Town
COMPLETEDWales · Premier League · 10/9/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Penybont · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Penybont 3-1 Barry Town
Original prediction
Penybont
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.77 | 50.9% | 55.5% | 4.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 25.5% | 22.6% | -3.0 pts |
| Away | 3.82 | 23.5% | 21.9% | -1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.77 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Penybont
Probability
55.5%
Model confidence
55.5%
Penybont has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
GF 10 · GA 12 · avg 2.00/2.40