Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Penybont · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Penybont 2-1 Airbus UK
Original prediction
Penybont
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 03:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.73 | 51.6% | 61.0% | 9.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.64 | 24.5% | 21.2% | -3.3 pts |
| Away | 3.73 | 23.9% | 17.8% | -6.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.73 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
Penybont
Probability
61.0%
Model confidence
61.0%
Penybont has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PenybontWWWWD
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Airbus UKWLLWW
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
PenybontAirbus UK
66.7Attack56.7
73.3Defence50.0
80.0Form50.0
74.5Power52.0
2.32xG0.81