Penrhyncochvs
Gresford Athletic
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 10/3/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Penrhyncoch · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Penrhyncoch 0-1 Gresford Athletic
Original prediction
Penrhyncoch
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 03:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.97 | 45.9% | 39.7% | -6.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.84 | 23.6% | 23.9% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.96 | 30.6% | 36.4% | 5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Penrhyncoch
Probability
39.7%
Model confidence
39.7%
Penrhyncoch has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 17 · avg 0.20/3.40
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40