Penrhyncochvs
Denbigh Town
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 8/28/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Denbigh Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (8%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Penrhyncoch 2-2 Denbigh Town
Original prediction
Denbigh Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.28 | 27.7% | 30.6% | 2.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.04 | 22.5% | 23.5% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 1.82 | 49.9% | 45.9% | -4.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.04 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–28%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Denbigh Town
Probability
45.9%
Model confidence
45.9%
Denbigh Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20