Penrhyncochvs
Bangor City 1876 FC
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 9/12/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bangor City 1876 FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-3 (9%), 0-3 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Penrhyncoch 1-5 Bangor City 1876 FC
Original prediction
Bangor City 1876 FC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.01 | 15.0% | 14.5% | -0.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.72 | 19.1% | 17.0% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 1.37 | 65.9% | 68.5% | 2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.37 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–39%
- 2.0–38%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Bangor City 1876 FC
Probability
68.5%
Model confidence
68.5%
Bangor City 1876 FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 18 · avg 0.40/3.60
GF 13 · GA 7 · avg 2.60/1.40