Pennarossavs
San Giovanni
COMPLETEDSan-Marino · Campionato · 10/23/2026, 7:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pennarossa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Pennarossa 2-2 San Giovanni
Original prediction
Pennarossa
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 08:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.97 | 45.6% | 47.7% | 2.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.42 | 26.2% | 24.1% | -2.1 pts |
| Away | 3.18 | 28.2% | 28.2% | 0.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.42 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Pennarossa
Probability
47.7%
Model confidence
47.7%
Pennarossa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 16 · avg 1.80/3.20
GF 2 · GA 9 · avg 0.40/1.80