Pennarossavs
Murata
COMPLETEDSan-Marino · Campionato · 9/6/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pennarossa · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Pennarossa 1-4 Murata
Original prediction
Pennarossa
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.29 | 70.0% | 49.3% | -20.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.87 | 18.5% | 24.8% | 6.2 pts |
| Away | 7.85 | 11.5% | 26.0% | 14.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-20.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Pennarossa
Probability
49.3%
Model confidence
49.3%
Pennarossa has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
GF 4 · GA 21 · avg 0.80/4.20