Pennarossavs
Folgore
COMPLETEDSan-Marino · Campionato · 10/9/2026, 7:15:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Folgore · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Pennarossa 1-5 Folgore
Original prediction
Folgore
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 08:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.98 | 15.0% | 20.3% | 5.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.21 | 21.3% | 22.0% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 1.41 | 63.7% | 57.7% | -6.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.41 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–210%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Folgore
Probability
57.7%
Model confidence
57.7%
Folgore has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PennarossaWLWLL
GF 10 · GA 16 · avg 2.00/3.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
FolgoreWWWWW
GF 12 · GA 1 · avg 2.40/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
PennarossaFolgore
58.3Attack83.3
0.0Defence91.7
25.0Form100.0
29.4Power90.5
1.19xG2.46