Pennarossavs
Fiorentino
COMPLETEDSan-Marino · Campionato · 9/19/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fiorentino · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Pennarossa 3-1 Fiorentino
Original prediction
Fiorentino
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.18 | 17.4% | 27.2% | 9.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.03 | 22.4% | 25.6% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 1.49 | 60.3% | 47.2% | -13.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Fiorentino
Probability
47.2%
Model confidence
47.2%
Fiorentino has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 18 · avg 1.40/3.60
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00