PenarolvsDefensa Y Justicia

Penarol are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LLDWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Defensa Y Justicia are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DWLDD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Defensa Y Justicia hold a 40.9-point power-rating edge (24.2 v 65.1). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 65.7% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while Defensa Y Justicia holds the strongest overall chance at 66% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 54% BTTS chance and 61% for over 2.5 goals.