Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Penarol · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Penarol are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WWLWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Danubio are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLWWL), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Penarol hold a 24.2-point power-rating edge (65.9 v 41.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 65.2% in the Primera División, while Penarol holds the strongest overall chance at 65% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 31% BTTS chance and 37% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Penarol
Probability
65.2%
Model confidence
65.2%
Penarol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80