Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Penarol · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 2-0
Penarol are 1W-4D-0L in their last 5 (DDDDW), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Cerro are 0W-3D-0L in their last 3 (DDD), averaging 0.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 8 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Penarol hold a 28.1-point power-rating edge (65.9 v 37.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 73.3% in the Primera División, while Penarol holds the strongest overall chance at 73% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 27% BTTS chance and 41% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Penarol
Probability
73.3%
Model confidence
73.3%
Penarol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 0 · GA 0 · avg 0.00/0.00