Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura
Saturday, 18 July 2026Last updated 10:02
Penarol

Penarol

Home
W
30
Full time
Boston River

Boston River

Away
LD
GoalVio prediction
47% confidence
Penarol(47%)
Most likely exact score2-1
Prediction correct— Result: Penarol
Win probability
Penarol
47%
Draw
25%
Boston River
27%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Penarol
94
Boston River
9
Defence
Penarol
91
Boston River
46
Momentum
Penarol
100
Boston River
17
Danger (xG)
Penarol
2.70
Boston River
0.00
Both teams to score
Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Yes
xG for (Penarol)
2.70
avg per match
xG for (Boston River)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Penarol)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Boston River)
1.35
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
PenarolPenarol
WW
Boston RiverBoston River
LDWL

Probability breakdown

47% confidence
Penarol47%
Draw25%
Boston River27%

Penarol leads with 47% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Penarol head into this in Primera División - Apertura fixture in mixed form (W), while Boston River arrive in mixed form (LD). Penarol have a 100% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 0% for Boston River over 2 games.

Tactically, this looks like a one-sided contest. Penarol's elite attack (94/100) faces a average Boston River defence (46/100), while Boston River's attack is up against a watertight Penarol backline. The model sees a clear mismatch in Penarol's favour.

Penarol have won all 1 of their recent home fixtures, averaging 3.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per game at home. Boston River have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 2 away matches. They average 0.5 goals scored and 2.5 conceded per away game.

Penarol have the upper hand in recent meetings, winning 1 of the last 1 encounters, averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The GoalVio engine projects Penarol to win with 47% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 2-1. Win probabilities: Penarol 4738%, Draw 2548%, Boston River 2715%. BTTS: Yes, Over 2.5: Yes.

Head to head

Penarol 1Draws 00 Boston River
Avg goals: 3.0
18 Jul 2026
Penarol
W30
Boston River

Recent form

Penarol

Penarol

W
vs Boston River
18 Jul 2026
30
W
@ Cerro Largo
12 May 2026
32
Boston River

Boston River

L
@ Penarol
18 Jul 2026
03
D
vs Central Espanol
12 Jul 2026
00
W
vs Cerro
16 May 2026
41
L
@ Deportivo Maldonado
11 May 2026
12

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Penarol vs Boston River?

GoalVio's model predicts Penarol to win with 47% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Penarol vs Boston River?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.

Will both teams score in Penarol vs Boston River?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Penarol vs Boston River?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more