Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Penang · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Penang 2-1 Melaka
Original prediction
Penang
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.63 | 54.8% | 46.6% | -8.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.64 | 24.6% | 27.3% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 4.35 | 20.6% | 26.1% | 5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.63 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Penang
Probability
46.6%
Model confidence
46.6%
Penang has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PenangDWLLW
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
MelakaLLWLD
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
PenangMelaka
33.3Attack0.0
100.0Defence66.7
100.0Form0.0
80.3Power23.7
1.55xG0.96