Penangvs
Johor Darul Takzim FC
COMPLETEDMalaysia · FA Cup · 9/20/2026, 9:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Johor Darul Takzim FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-3 (8%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Penang 2-7 Johor Darul Takzim FC
Original prediction
Johor Darul Takzim FC
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 06:35 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 45.83 | 2.0% | 19.0% | 17.0 pts |
| Draw | 12.67 | 7.4% | 18.6% | 11.3 pts |
| Away | 1.03 | 90.6% | 62.4% | -28.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.03 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-28.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–38%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
Johor Darul Takzim FC
Probability
62.4%
Model confidence
62.4%
Johor Darul Takzim FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
GF 21 · GA 2 · avg 4.20/0.40