Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Penafiel are 0W-1D-1L in their last 2 (LD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded, while Leixoes are 1W-0D-0L in their last 1 (W), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 3 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 45.5 against 44.9. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 46.8% in the Segunda Liga, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 24% BTTS chance and 15% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
46.8%
Model confidence
46.8%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 3 · avg 1.00/1.50
GF 2 · GA 1 · avg 2.00/1.00