Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Penafiel · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Penafiel 0-1 Leça
Original prediction
Penafiel
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.63 | 56.0% | 43.1% | -13.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.68 | 24.7% | 26.4% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 4.74 | 19.2% | 30.5% | 11.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Penafiel
Probability
43.1%
Model confidence
43.1%
Penafiel has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PenafielLDWWW
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
LeçaWWWLW
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
PenafielLeça
66.7Attack66.7
66.7Defence100.0
100.0Form100.0
80.3Power88.7
1.70xG1.51