Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Penafiel · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Penafiel 1-0 AVS, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Penafiel 1-2 AVS
Original prediction
Penafiel
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 00:59 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.91 | 48.3% | 54.4% | 6.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 28.4% | 25.9% | -2.5 pts |
| Away | 3.94 | 23.4% | 19.7% | -3.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.2 pts
Projected Score
Penafiel 1–0 AVS
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Penafiel
Probability
54.4%
Model confidence
54.4%
Penafiel has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PenafielDWWWW
GF 13 · GA 5 · avg 2.60/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
AVSWDLWD
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
PenafielAVS
72.2Attack33.3
72.2Defence66.7
72.2Form33.3
72.0Power46.3
1.62xG0.66