Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Academica · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Penafiel 0-0 Academica, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Penafiel 4-1 Academica
Original prediction
Academica
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.12 | 43.6% | 32.4% | -11.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.13 | 29.5% | 30.4% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 3.42 | 27.0% | 37.2% | 10.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.3 pts
Projected Score
Penafiel 0–0 Academica
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Academica
Probability
37.2%
Model confidence
37.2%
Academica has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PenafielWWDLL
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
AcademicaLWWWD
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
PenafielAcademica
30.4Attack100.0
61.8Defence66.7
38.2Form100.0
45.5Power88.7
0.77xG1.15