Penafiel U23vs
Vizela U23
COMPLETEDPortugal · Liga Revelação U23 · 10/27/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Penafiel U23 · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Penafiel U23 2-3 Vizela U23
Original prediction
Penafiel U23
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.11 | 42.9% | 37.8% | -5.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.45 | 26.3% | 28.9% | 2.6 pts |
| Away | 2.94 | 30.8% | 33.3% | 2.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Penafiel U23
Probability
37.8%
Model confidence
37.8%
Penafiel U23 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20