Penafiel U23vs
Leixões U23
COMPLETEDPortugal · Liga Revelação U23 · 9/1/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leixões U23 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Penafiel U23 1-1 Leixões U23
Original prediction
Leixões U23
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.31 | 39.1% | 33.9% | -5.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.18 | 28.4% | 27.5% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.78 | 32.5% | 38.7% | 6.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.18 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Leixões U23
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Leixões U23 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/2.00
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00