Penafiel U23vs
Benfica U23
COMPLETEDPortugal · Liga Revelação U23 · 10/13/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Benfica U23 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Penafiel U23 3-1 Benfica U23
Original prediction
Benfica U23
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.87 | 31.5% | 33.5% | 2.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 25.9% | 28.4% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 2.11 | 42.7% | 38.1% | -4.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Benfica U23
Probability
38.1%
Model confidence
38.1%
Benfica U23 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00