Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pelister · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Pelister are 0W-3D-2L in their last 5 (LLDDD), averaging 1.40 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Pakhtakor are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DDWDW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Pelister hold a 4.5-point power-rating edge (51.9 v 47.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.6% in the Friendlies Clubs, while Pelister holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 54% BTTS chance and 52% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Pelister
Probability
43.6%
Model confidence
43.6%
Pelister has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80