Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pelister · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Pelister 1-0 Osogovo, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Pelister 3-0 Osogovo
Original prediction
Pelister
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.18 | 76.2% | 58.2% | -17.9 pts |
| Draw | 5.50 | 16.3% | 25.7% | 9.4 pts |
| Away | 12.00 | 7.5% | 16.0% | 8.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.18 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-17.9 pts
Projected Score
Pelister 1–0 Osogovo
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Pelister
Probability
58.2%
Model confidence
58.2%
Pelister has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PelisterDWWWW
GF 13 · GA 1 · avg 2.60/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
OsogovoDDLLL
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
PelisterOsogovo
42.9Attack14.3
95.2Defence66.7
71.4Form14.3
70.4Power35.0
1.20xG0.53