Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pelister · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Pelister 1-0 Ohrid
Original prediction
Pelister
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.78 | 50.8% | 38.7% | -12.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.45 | 26.3% | 27.2% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 3.94 | 23.0% | 34.1% | 11.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.78 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Pelister
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Pelister has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PelisterWWWWD
GF 13 · GA 1 · avg 2.60/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
OhridWLWWW
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
PelisterOhrid
53.3Attack100.0
93.3Defence75.0
73.3Form100.0
73.0Power91.2
1.20xG1.29