PEC Zwollevs
NEC Nijmegen
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eredivisie · 8/29/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
NEC Nijmegen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
PEC Zwolle 1-3 NEC Nijmegen
Original prediction
NEC Nijmegen
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.64 | 25.9% | 30.9% | 5.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.08 | 23.1% | 25.4% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 1.84 | 51.0% | 43.7% | -7.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.84 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
NEC Nijmegen
Probability
43.7%
Model confidence
43.7%
NEC Nijmegen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 11 · avg 1.00/2.20
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00