Peña Sportvs
SD Logroñés
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · 10/3/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
SD Logroñés · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (10%), 1-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Peña Sport 4-0 SD Logroñés
Original prediction
SD Logroñés
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.81 | 31.9% | 35.6% | 3.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.05 | 29.4% | 28.4% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.32 | 38.7% | 36.0% | -2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–010%
- 3.1–010%
Predicted outcome
SD Logroñés
Probability
36.0%
Model confidence
36.0%
SD Logroñés has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60