Peña Sportvs
Espanyol II
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 · 9/19/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Espanyol II · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Peña Sport 2-1 Espanyol II
Original prediction
Espanyol II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.97 | 18.2% | 25.4% | 7.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.55 | 25.5% | 27.0% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 1.61 | 56.3% | 47.6% | -8.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Espanyol II
Probability
47.6%
Model confidence
47.6%
Espanyol II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.50/1.25
GF 14 · GA 1 · avg 2.80/0.20