Peña Deportivavs
Ucam Murcia
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · 10/19/2026, 3:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ucam Murcia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (13%), 0-2 (12%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Peña Deportiva 0-1 Ucam Murcia
Original prediction
Ucam Murcia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.65 | 24.9% | 21.3% | -3.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.22 | 28.1% | 25.2% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 1.93 | 47.0% | 53.4% | 6.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.93 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–113%
- 2.0–212%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
Ucam Murcia
Probability
53.4%
Model confidence
53.4%
Ucam Murcia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 13 · GA 4 · avg 2.60/0.80