Peña Deportivavs
Real Murcia II
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · 9/27/2026, 9:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Peña Deportiva · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Peña Deportiva 0-2 Real Murcia II
Original prediction
Peña Deportiva
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.58 | 57.5% | 40.8% | -16.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.64 | 25.0% | 27.5% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 5.18 | 17.5% | 31.6% | 14.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-16.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Peña Deportiva
Probability
40.8%
Model confidence
40.8%
Peña Deportiva has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 9 · avg 0.40/1.80
GF 3 · GA 13 · avg 0.60/2.60