Peña Deportivavs
Orihuela
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 · 10/11/2026, 9:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Peña Deportiva · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (11%), 1-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Peña Deportiva 3-1 Orihuela
Original prediction
Peña Deportiva
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.64 | 34.4% | 37.1% | 2.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 28.0% | 28.3% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.41 | 37.6% | 34.6% | -3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.64 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.1–011%
Predicted outcome
Peña Deportiva
Probability
37.1%
Model confidence
37.1%
Peña Deportiva has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
GF 5 · GA 14 · avg 1.00/2.80