Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Rentistas · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Paysandu 0-0 Rentistas, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
Paysandu 2-1 Rentistas
Original prediction
Rentistas
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 2 October 2026 at 12:12 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.40 | 26.8% | 30.1% | 3.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.20 | 28.4% | 30.9% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 2.03 | 44.8% | 39.0% | -5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.8 pts
Projected Score
Paysandu 0–0 Rentistas
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Rentistas
Probability
39.0%
Model confidence
39.0%
Rentistas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PaysanduLDDLW
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
RentistasWLWLW
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
PaysanduRentistas
37.0Attack39.5
56.8Defence65.4
35.8Form51.9
45.7Power54.4
0.80xG0.96