Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Paysandu · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Paysandu 0-1 Maringá
Original prediction
Paysandu
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.05 | 44.3% | 44.2% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.19 | 28.4% | 23.3% | -5.2 pts |
| Away | 3.31 | 27.3% | 32.6% | 5.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Paysandu
Probability
44.2%
Model confidence
44.2%
Paysandu has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PaysanduWLWLW
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
MaringáWDLDW
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
PaysanduMaringá
48.1Attack57.4
51.9Defence44.4
53.7Form50.0
53.2Power51.2
1.73xG1.50