Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Paysandu 0-0 La Luz, with an exact score probability of 22%.
Prediction record
Final result
Paysandu 0-1 La Luz
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.88 | 31.4% | 36.4% | 4.9 pts |
| Draw | 2.95 | 30.7% | 32.1% | 1.5 pts |
| Away | 2.39 | 37.9% | 31.5% | -6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.5 pts
Projected Score
Paysandu 0–0 La Luz
Exact score probability: 22%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
32.1%
Model confidence
36.4%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PaysanduWWDLL
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
La LuzLDLLD
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
PaysanduLa Luz
39.1Attack26.1
56.5Defence62.3
39.1Form36.2
47.3Power43.6
0.96xG0.61