Paysanduvs
Ferroviária
COMPLETEDBrazil · Serie C · 10/3/2026, 10:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ferroviária · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (15%), 0-0 (15%), 1-1 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Paysandu 1-0 Ferroviária
Original prediction
Ferroviária
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.13 | 42.5% | 31.1% | -11.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 28.2% | 29.2% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 3.09 | 29.3% | 39.7% | 10.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–115%
- 2.0–015%
- 3.1–114%
Predicted outcome
Ferroviária
Probability
39.7%
Model confidence
39.7%
Ferroviária has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20