Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Paysandu 0-0 Colón, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Paysandu 3-2 Colón
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 October 2026 at 20:35 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.69 | 33.7% | 32.5% | -1.2 pts |
| Draw | 2.91 | 31.2% | 31.7% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.59 | 35.0% | 35.8% | 0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.5 pts
Projected Score
Paysandu 0–0 Colón
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
31.7%
Model confidence
35.8%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PaysanduWWLDD
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
ColónWWDLL
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 4/5
PaysanduColón
37.9Attack39.1
58.6Defence66.7
40.2Form51.7
48.1Power54.2
0.80xG0.90