Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Paysandu are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (LLDLD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Cerrito are 1W-4D-0L in their last 5 (WDDDD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Cerrito hold an 8.2-point power-rating edge (44.7 v 52.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 37.6% in the Segunda División, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 38% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 41% BTTS chance and 32% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
37.6%
Model confidence
37.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00