Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Paysandu · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Paysandu 1-2 Brusque
Original prediction
Paysandu
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.70 | 53.3% | 37.7% | -15.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 25.9% | 25.8% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 4.39 | 20.7% | 36.5% | 15.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Paysandu
Probability
37.7%
Model confidence
37.7%
Paysandu has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PaysanduLWLWL
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
BrusqueDDWLW
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
PaysanduBrusque
45.6Attack49.1
52.6Defence61.4
50.9Form56.1
51.7Power57.7
1.11xG1.30