Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Paysandu are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWWLD), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Brusque are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WLLDD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Brusque hold a 2.1-point power-rating edge (55.5 v 57.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 34.5% in the Serie C, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 35% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 49% BTTS chance and 41% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
34.5%
Model confidence
34.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20