Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atenas · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Paysandu 2-0 Atenas
Original prediction
Atenas
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.51 | 36.1% | 29.5% | -6.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.04 | 29.8% | 27.5% | -2.3 pts |
| Away | 2.65 | 34.1% | 43.0% | 8.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Atenas
Probability
43.0%
Model confidence
43.0%
Atenas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PaysanduDLLWW
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AtenasDWWWL
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
PaysanduAtenas
36.5Attack47.6
54.0Defence60.3
33.3Form52.4
43.9Power54.6
0.90xG1.24