Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pavia · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Pavia 3-1 Casatese
Original prediction
Pavia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.52 | 35.1% | 37.5% | 2.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.05 | 29.1% | 28.7% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 2.48 | 35.8% | 33.8% | -2.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.52 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Pavia
Probability
37.5%
Model confidence
37.5%
Pavia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PaviaLDLLD
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
CasateseLWLWW
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
PaviaCasatese
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.46xG1.24