Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: PAU 0-0 Sochaux, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
PAU 1-1 Sochaux
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.27 | 41.1% | 36.8% | -4.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.21 | 29.0% | 31.0% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 3.12 | 29.9% | 32.2% | 2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.21 · Draw 2.21 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.9 pts
Projected Score
PAU 0–0 Sochaux
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
31.0%
Model confidence
36.8%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
PAUDLWLL
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
SochauxDWDLD
GF 2 · GA 4 · avg 0.40/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
PAUSochaux
25.0Attack8.3
66.7Defence75.0
33.3Form41.7
44.6Power44.5
0.91xG0.85